It's that time of year again. The steady November to December flow of great movies has ended, and we're stuck with Norbit as last weekend's #1 movie at the box office. Yes, it's a sad time for us all. But never fear, for all those good movies that you were too busy to see are coming out on DVD, just in time for you to buy them before 90% don't win any Academy Awards and we all lose interest in them again. That's right, it's Oscar season, and though winning one implies next to nothing about the quality of the movie (see: Crash), everyone is swept up in the Oscar buzz about who will win and who Ellen will make fun of in that cute, sarcastic, back-handed way she always does (full disclosure: I love Ellen and am waiting patiently for the day when she says she was kidding about the whole gay thing). With about a week to go, it's time for Oscar forecasting. Though I haven't seen every movie that's nominated, I feel I am qualified to make some predictions after winning last year's Oscar pool, which I organized and added up the scores for myself. But I swear I won. For real.
Best Picture
Will win: Babel
Should win: The Departed
The Departed is by far the best movie of the year, without a doubt, no ifs, ands, or buts. But the best movie doesn't always win. In fact, it usually doesn't. Babel is unlike anything we've seen before; it's a long way from a perfect movie, and it's nowhere near as good as I¤árritu's other two films (Amores Perros and 21 Grams, both of which received Oscar nominations but no wins), but it's different enough from the other four nominees, which will split some votes, and good enough to win.
Should've been nominated: Children of Men
This was a brilliant film that isn't getting the credit it deserves. After The Departed, it's up there as one of the best of the year.
If Letters from Iwo Jima wins: I might actually go see it.
Best Director
Will win: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
We all thought he'd win with Gangs of New York. Then we were sure he'd win for The Aviator. But those movies just weren't good enough. The Departed is. It's finally Marty's year. He really deserved the Oscar a long time ago, for Taxi Driver or The Last Waltz, but after four decades of great movies, five Oscar nominations for best director, and no wins, he deserves it.
Should win: Alejandro González I¤árritu, Babel
For lifetime achievement and a great film, Marty will win, and even though The Departed works a lot better than Babel, I¤árritu deserves the award. The Departed is great because of the source material; Scorsese did a great job, but someone else could've come close. I¤árritu made some tough decisions in Babel and put some pretty risky things on screen that are unlike anything I've ever seen. The final product is a little shaky, but Babel was a much more difficult movie to direct; I¤árritu got some amazingly subtle performances out of some of the world's most famous actors and he bridged the gaps between disjointed storylines in thematic and visual ways.
If Clint Eastwood wins: I will defenestrate myself. (Don't you just love that word? Defenestrate? It kind of just rolls of the tongue. Defenestrate. But seriously, if he wins, I will throw myself out the window.)
Best Actress
Will win: Helen Mirren, The Queen
The Queen is the most captivating, understated movie of the year, and Helen Mirren is perfect in it. She will win without a doubt.
Should win: Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Mirren accurately portrayed a real person, and the Academy loves that (Jamie Foxx won in 2005 for portraying Ray Charles, Reese Witherspoon in 2006 for portraying June Carter, and Philip Seymour Hoffman in 2006 for portraying Truman Capote). But despite Oscar's recent love affair with leading actors in biopics, it's a lot harder to create a complex and interesting character from scratch than to imitate a famous person. Judi Dench is brilliant in Notes on a Scandal; she plays a woman we love to hate and her nuanced performance requires a second viewing to truly understand the character. She is repulsive, but it's weird, intriguing, likeable kind of repulsion. Amazing.
If Meryl Streep wins: I will 34th Street. Yes, the actual newspaper. Like on a plate, with a fork and knife. I'll add a little salt and pepper. We'll take pictures as proof. I mean, c'mon! Enough already! We know she's amazing (see Street, December 7, 2006). She doesn't need another award. If Meryl wins, I'll eat Street. I'll even use the December 7th issue and eat a piece with Meryl's photo on it. How self-reflexive.
Best Actor
Will win: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Should win: Who the hell knows?!
Has anyone seen any of these movies? It's madness. Peter O'Toole? Ryan Gosling? And Leo's nominated for Blood Diamond but not for The Departed? The Departed is the first movie Leo's been in since Gilbert Grape in which I actually enjoyed watching him on screen, and he gets nominated for a different movie? It must've been the accent.
If Will Smith wins: I will cry myself to sleep while remembering the good old days (watching Fresh Prince reruns and listening to "Parents Just Don't Understand").
Best Documentary
Will win: An Inconvenient Truth
Hey, I tried to tell you, the Oscars are more about politics than merit. Still, you can say what you want about global warming, but I saw this movie as an amazing character study of a man trying to start his life over again, a man who lost everything in the most disappointing way possible and is starting from scratch to do something he believes in and change the world. Maybe global warming doesn't exist, and maybe there's nothing we can do about it if it does exist, but this was a good movie. Plus that Keynote address was fuckin' sweet. I love Apple.
Should win: Jesus Camp
But it won't, because Al Gore and his movie are too big and important.
Original Screenplay
Will win and should win: Little Miss Sunshine
While it's possible that Babel and The Departed will split the votes and Best Picture will go to Little Miss Sunshine, it's a much safer bet in the screenplay category. It's the movie that everyone loved but that somehow doesn't quite cut it as best picture. They'll want to reward it somehow, and this is their chance. And in the history of the Academy Awards, this is the kind of cult movie that wins best screenplay, while bigger blockbusters take the top prize. Take the 1998 awards: Titanic won Best Picture while L.A. Confidential won Best Adapted Screenplay and Good Will Hunting won Best Original Screenplay. Little Miss Sunshine would be a perfect addition to the list of screenplay winners. It's a great script.
Adapted Screenplay
Will win: The Departed
It's a great story and a great script. The fact that it's a remake may prevent it from winning Best Picture, but it'll nab this award since all the script in this category are based off previous source material.
Should win: Borat
Though it's adapted, it's based on something that Sacha Baron Cohen and his team of writers developed themselves. It's been a while, so people might have forgotten how good this movie was. Let me remind you: it was really, really good. Quite frankly I'm surprised it wasn't nominated for anything else. It was by far the best comedy of the year, but it was-to quote the TBS commercial-seriously funny, and I think it's time for the Academy to start taking comedies more seriously.
More predictions:
Uma and Oprah will final reveal that they are in fact the same person. I mean, c'mon, when Letterman hosted, did we even see the two of them in the same shot on TV? It's a giant conspiracy. I've been trying to convince people for years, but no one's buying it.
The Prestige and The Illusionist, inspired by Uma and Oprah, will reveal that they are in fact the same movie. I mean, c'mon, have you ever seen those two movies in the same room together? I didn't think so.
Ellen will declare that she was kidding about the whole gay thing and profess her love to that handsome young Penn student and Street contributor who keeps writing her letters every day. Then she'll say something like, "Just kidding!" But then she'll say she was just kidding about being just kidding. And it will be funny. And we'll get married.
The world will finally come to an end when Mel Gibson wins an Oscar (there's a reason he called it Apocalypto).
Whoever announces the awards for sound mixing and sound editing will be extremely vague about what the award is for so that we still don't know what the hell the difference is between them.
I will win the Oscar pool that I've organized-unless, of course, all my friends read this article and pick all the same winners. Then we will tie for first.
